Eldercare Labor Demand in China and Coping Strategies

Beschreibung

This book analyzes the demand for elderly care labor from 2020 to 2058 and eldercare labor shortfall in China from 2022 to 2035, utilizing data from the China Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and World Population Prospects 2022 (United Nations, 2022), employing Markov models and propensity score matching method. The empirical analysis results show that the total eldercare labor demand in China in 2058 will increase to 2.5 times of that in 2022 according to 8-hour working system; and it will be 2.10 times and 2.24 times increase respectively in 2058 than that of in 2022 according to national and provincial standards of caregiver-carereceiver ratios. The accelerated aging process and rapid increase in the younger elderly population will result in a rapid care labor demand increase among the healthy elderly as health fluctuates until about 2042, with a 1.5-fold increase.  Then it will be followed by accelerated care labor growth among the impaired and dysfunctional elderly. Over time, the older adults with care demand but without care supply will gradually increase, nearly doubling by 2058 compared to 2022. At present, family care is still the main eldercare supply mode among aging population in China, accounting for up to 94% of the total. Through comparing the predicted demand and supply, the total eldercare labor shortfall will increase 72.3% from 2020 to 2035. It is recommended that on the one hand, eldercare labor demand in China can be reduced from the origin by improving the health of the population all life circle, and also can be substituted by innovating supply models including artificial intelligence and smart elderly care; on the other hand, the effective supply of elderly care labor can be expanded by building a modern care service system to develop care market and care economy, improving the long-term care insurance system to promote the payment ability of the care users, supporting family career and care volunteers, training more care practitioners with higher professional ethics, and introducing reasonable salary mechanism for care work to improve care quantity and quality.

This book employs Markov models and propensity score matching methods to analyze the demand for elderly care labor, utilizing data from the China Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and World Population Prospects 2022 (United Nations, 2022). The model predicts the health transferring scenario among the aging population firstly, and then the demand for elderly care labor from 2022 to 2058 under a fixed care time demand scenario according to 8-hour working system, as well as national and provincial regulations on caregiver-carereceiver ratios. The accelerated aging process and rapid increase in the younger elderly population will result in a rapid increase in the demand for elderly care labor for the healthy elderly until about 2042, with a 1.5-fold increase. This is followed by accelerated growth in the demand for elderly care labor for the impaired and dysfunctional aging population. Over time, the supply of older adults without care will gradually increase, nearly doubling by 2058 compared to 2022. It is recommended that on the one hand, eldercare labor demand in China can be reduced from the origin by improving the health of the population; and on the other hand, the effective supply of elderly care be expanded by building a modern care service system, improving relevant policies, integrating care resources, and innovating the supply model.

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Yali Zhu

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care for the older adults eldercare demand demand of eldercare labor supply of eldercare labor deficit of eldercare labor care time demand ratio of care giver to care receiver health status of the older adults health status scenario quantitative analysis

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