This open access volume offers the first comprehensive assessment of how the Iran–Israel rivalry is reshaping Gulf security and transforming the foreign policies, strategic behavior, and defense choices of the GCC states. Spanning the post–October 2023 conflagration, the June 2025 Twelve-Day War, and its devastating 2026 sequel, the sixteen chapters examine the securitization of the rivalry, country-level foreign policy adaptation across all six GCC members, the fate of connectivity corridors such as IMEC and the Belt and Road, and recalibrated relationships with Türkiye, Pakistan, India, and beyond.
The book explains how Gulf states have simultaneously pursued de-escalation with Iran, selective engagement with Israel, strategic autonomy, and the safeguarding of their ambitious economic visions against the threat of wider war. Drawing on Regional Security Complex Theory alongside hedging, sheltering, small-states, and strategic foresight approaches, the volume brings together early-career researchers, senior academics, regional experts, and practitioners from institutions across the Gulf, the wider Middle East, Europe, South Asia, and the United States.
The result is a uniquely interdisciplinary account that transcends the existing literature and serves as essential reading for academics, researchers, postgraduate students, policymakers, diplomats, and practitioners working on Middle East politics, international relations, security studies, and Gulf affairs.
Ali Bakir is a Research Assistant Professor of International Affairs, Security, and Defense at Qatar University. He is also a Nonresident Senior Fellow with the Middle East Council on Global Affairs; a former Nonresident Senior Fellow with the "Scowcroft ME Security Initiative" at the Atlantic Council; and a Task Force member of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, PhD, is a fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute. He is also a Senior Nonresident Fellow at the Gulf International Forum and the Arab Center Washington DC.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington, DC-based geopolitical risk consultancy. He is also an Adjunct Assistant Professor at Georgetown University and an Adjunct Fellow at the American Security Project.
This open access volume offers the first comprehensive assessment of how the Iran–Israel rivalry is reshaping Gulf security and transforming the foreign policies, strategic behavior, and defense choices of the GCC states. Spanning the post–October 2023 conflagration, the June 2025 Twelve-Day War, and its devastating 2026 sequel, the sixteen chapters examine the securitization of the rivalry, country-level foreign policy adaptation across all six GCC members, the fate of connectivity corridors such as IMEC and the Belt and Road, and recalibrated relationships with Türkiye, Pakistan, India, and beyond.
The book explains how Gulf states have simultaneously pursued de-escalation with Iran, selective engagement with Israel, strategic autonomy, and the safeguarding of their ambitious economic visions against the threat of wider war. Drawing on Regional Security Complex Theory alongside hedging, sheltering, small-states, and strategic foresight approaches, the volume brings together early-career researchers, senior academics, regional experts, and practitioners from institutions across the Gulf, the wider Middle East, Europe, South Asia, and the United States.
The result is a uniquely interdisciplinary account that transcends the existing literature and serves as essential reading for academics, researchers, postgraduate students, policymakers, diplomats, and practitioners working on Middle East politics, international relations, security studies, and Gulf affairs.
Ali Bakir
Open Access Iran-Israel rivalry GCC states foreign policy GCC States strategic behavior Gulf security Middle East regional security Gulf security architecture Saudi-Iran détente Abraham Accords impact US strategic retrenchment Port geopolitics Middle East Gaza-GCC India-GCC relations Pakistan-GCC relations Gulf connectivity initiatives