Food Dependency in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Beschreibung

At present, 40% of the agri-food needs of the Middle-East and North Africa (MENA) region is covered by imports, whereas this figure was just about 10% in the beginning of the 1960’s. Demographic growth and diet change has combined to increase food demand while the region’s agricultural production grew rapidly but much less than demand. In this geopolitically complex region, agricultural imports and food policies represent an important share in state budgets and their actual level could curb development and the fight against poverty. In the future, even higher demographic growth and increased climate change could sensibly modify the region’s agricultural potentialities.In this context, our study examines the agri-food future of this region in 2050. After a detailed retrospective analysis of past determinants, the impact of a simple extension of past tendencies was simulated. This central scenario, to which we added a reinforcement of climate change, was completed by several alternative scenarios inducing either an increase or a decrease of import dependency. Our results show that the region’s import dependency could accentuate and even become extreme in the Maghreb, the Middle-East and the Near-East. None of the examined levers could singularly limit this increase. Only a combination, which would require ambitious agricultural and food policies and their association to a world wide effort in climate change mitigation, would allow to maintain the import dependency of the MENA region at reasonable levels.
This volume covers the Middle-Eastern and North African regions who are increasingly dependent on imports from abroad for covering their domestic food needs. Results of this study show that this import dependence is likely to increase further by 2050. Some sub-regions hardly reach sustainable levels; the Maghreb, Near and Middle-East could import 60 to 70% of their food needs. These results are indicative whatever the considered scenario, but especially if climate change impacts become more severe.
This book offers a rapid manner to apprehend the future of food security in the Middle-East and North Africa, a region with geostrategic importance this book proposes a synthetic but detailed retrospective analysis on the evolution of the agri-food system of the region, which provides a consistent basis for the prospective analysis This book would be of public interest on how to make projections and siumulations using quantitative methods, mobilizing a biomass balance model

Autor*in

Chantal Le Mouël

Themen in »Food Dependency in the Middle East and North Africa Region«

Food Security Food and Agricultural Systems Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Climate Change Projections to 2050 climate change impacts

Stimmen zu »Food Dependency in the Middle East and North Africa Region«

Details

Link teilen