Heterogeneity, spontaneous coordination and extreme events within large-scale and small-scale agent-based financial market models

Beschreibung

We propose a novel agent-based financial market framework in which speculators usually follow their own individual technical and fundamental trading rules to determine their orders. However, there are also sunspot-initiated periods in which their trading behavior is correlated. We are able to convert our (very) simple large-scale agent-based model into a simple small-scale agent-based model and show that our framework is able to produce bubbles and crashes, excess volatility, fattailed return distributions, serially uncorrelated returns and volatility clustering. While lasting volatility outbursts occur if the mass of speculators switches to technical analysis, extreme price changes emerge if sunspots coordinate temporarily the behavior of speculators.

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Noemi Schmitt

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agent-based models financial markets heterogeneity and coordination stylized facts sunspots and extreme events technical and fundamental analysis

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