A Managed Decline of Fossil Fuel Production
The Paris Goals Require No New Expansion and a Managed Decline of Fussil Fuel Production
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Beschreibung
The Paris Agreement, now officially in force and ratified by more than 160 nations,
sets a global temperature goal of staying well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
levels while striving to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.1 Signatory
nations chose these goals to create a reasonable chance of avoiding the most dangerous
impacts of climate change.2
Basic climate science shows that – all else equal – total cumulative carbon dioxide
emissions (CO2) over time determine how much global warming will occur. There is
a set level of total cumulative emissions that can occur for a given temperature limit.
This is our «carbon budget.»3
In Oil Change International's September 2016 report, The Sky's Limit: Why the
Paris Climate Goals Require a Managed Decline of Fossil Fuel Production,4 we analyzed
what a Paris-aligned carbon budget would mean for fossil fuel production
globally. We used the carbon budgets, calculated by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC),5 that would give a likely (66 percent) chance of limiting
temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius and a medium (50 percent) chance
of limiting temperature increases to below 1.5 degrees Celsius – equivalent to the
range of the Paris goals. We compared these budgets to the cumulative CO2 that will
be released over time from all coal, gas, and oil projects currently operating or under
construction around the world (Figure 1).
The results show that the carbon embedded in already developed fields and mines
would fully exhaust and exceed the carbon budgets the world must stay within to
achieve the Paris Agreement goals.
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Erneuerbare Energien Fossile Energien Pariser Klimaabkommen