The expectations-driven U.S. current account

Beschreibung

Since 1991, survey expectations of long-run output growth for the U.S. relative to the rest of the world exhibit a pattern strikingly similar to that of the U.S. current account, and thus also to global imbalances. We show that this finding can to a large extent be rationalized in a two-region stochastic growth model simulated using expected trend growth filtered from observed productivity. In line with the intertemporal approach to the current account, a major part of the buildup of the U.S. current account deficit appears to be driven by the optimal response of households and firms to improved growth prospects.
Steht auch als Elektronisches Dokument zur Verfügung (ISBN 978-3-86558-898-2)

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Mathias Hoffmann

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Erwartungstheorie Leistungsbilanzdefizit USA Produktivitätssteigerung Wirtschaftswachstum USA

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