Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector
Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia
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Beschreibung
This thesis deals with the topic of how technological knowledge declines over time and the resulting limitations of techno-economic energy demand models in anticipating future demand for energy in the long-term. Since this is a principle limitation of ex ante analyses, this deficiency has been discussed for some time, but so far no methodological solution has been developed. The study is the first to develop a concept that draws on a broad methodological basis from different scientific disciplines (energy modelling and innovation economics) to address this limitation. Applying the concept developed to a practical question � energy scenarios for the German household sector until 2050 � shows that integrating the decline in technological knowledge into answering it leads to interesting new insights.
Autor*in
Rainer Elsland
Themen in »Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector«
Energieeffizienz Energiepolitik Integrated Demand Model Supply &Demand Technology Assessment Climate Change