Russia’s Comparative Advantages in Foreign Trade

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Identifying factors which stimulate regional growth and international competitiveness and using them for forecasting are the aims of this book. The author proposes the use of heuristic optimization techniques, Monte Carlo simulation experiments and Lasso-type estimators to avoid bias or misleading findings.
Identifying factors which stimulate regional growth and international competitiveness and using them for forecasting are the aims of this book. Departing from the theory of comparative advantages and their impact, the author demonstrates that such an approach has to be based on a sound theoretical foundation and on appropriate, advanced econometric methods. He proposes the use of heuristic optimization techniques, Monte Carlo simulation experiments and Lasso-type estimators to avoid bias or misleading findings, which might be the result of applying standard regression methods when key assumptions are not satisfied. In addition, the author demonstrates how some heuristic optimization-based methods can be used to obtain forecasts of industrial production in Russia and Germany founded on past observations and some leading indicators.

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Ivan Savin

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Advantages Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries Comparative Dynamics Forecasting Foreign heuristic optimization Identifying least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) Measures Monte Carlo simulation Potential Russia Russia’s Russian Federation

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