Predictive Behavior
An Experimental Study
Buch in deiner Nähe kaufen
Beschreibung
This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with
a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting
behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be
forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model
involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This
designprovides an optimal background for rational
expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these
hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior
satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of
rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather
than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of
volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is
observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such
as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are
studied.
Autor*in
Gunnar Brennscheidt
Themen in »Predictive Behavior«
Erwartungsbildung Expectation Formation Experimentelle Wirtschaftsforschung Rationality of Expectations Rationalität der Erwartungen economics experimental economics forecasting regression time series