China’s Macroeconomic Outlook

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The research team makes the following forecasts: First, in 2013 China’s growth will remain stable and reach 8.23 percent, an increase of 0.43 percentage points compared with the previous year; even though there is inflation pressure resulting from global monetary easing, severe inflation in China is unlikely to happen, and the consumer price index (CPI) will remain at 3.11 percent. Second, the growth of imports and exports will rebound, but the trade surplus will decrease further. Finally, the share of investment in GDP will continue to be high in the short term as urbanization promotes the growth of fixed assets investment, though higher per capita incomes will result in high and steady consumption.


The research team makes the following forecasts: First, in 2013 China’s growth will remain stable and reach 8.23 percent, an increase of 0.43 percentage points compared with the previous year; even though there is inflation pressure resulting from global monetary easing, severe inflation in China is unlikely to happen, and the consumer price index (CPI) will remain at 3.11 percent. Second, the growth of imports and exports will rebound, but the trade surplus will decrease further. Finally, the share of investment in GDP will continue to be high in the short term as urbanization promotes the growth of fixed assets investment, though higher per capita incomes will result in high and steady consumption.


A quarterly forecast and analysis report on China's macroeconomic outlook, based on China's Quarterly Macroeconometric Model (CQMM) High reference value for entrepreneurs to project China's macroeconomic performance in the coming years and review possible effectiveness of macroeconomic policies A platform to aid understanding of China's macroeconomic behavior and policy dynamics Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

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CMR of Xiamen University

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China Quarterly Macroeconometric Model China’s Macroeconomic Outlook Fiscal Adjustments Macroeconomic Projection Policy Simulation

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