Valid Causal Inference from Observational Data
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Beschreibung
This book presents a rigorous, practitioner-ready framework for determining when interventional causal claims can be validly drawn from observational data. By integrating potential outcomes (PO), structural causal models (SCMs), directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), quasi-experimental and longitudinal designs, information-theoretic approaches, and modern machine-learning methods with decision-analytic principles, it identifies necessary conditions for each step of the causal inference process, from defining estimands and identifying causal effects to study design, measurement, estimation, interpretation, robustness, and external validity. The framework is operationalized through practical checklists, tables, diagnostic and falsification tests, and AI-assisted tools, making it accessible across fields such as epidemiology, environmental and occupational health, and regulatory risk analysis. Designed to meet the needs of professionals making high-stakes decisions based on nonexperimental data, the book addresses the lack of clear, testable criteria for credible causal inference. Real-world examples throughout the book illustrate diagnostics, falsification tests, and robustness checks, linking evidence directly to decision-making. Bridging multiple causal frameworks and modern machine-learning methods, it equips readers to assess when data support cause-and-effect conclusions, supporting more responsible, evidence-based policy and risk management.
The book offers health risk analysts, epidemiologists, and policy professionals a practical guide to valid causal inference from observational data. It is also ideal for graduate students and workshop participants in data science, decision analysis, risk analysis, and AI/ML applications.
This book presents a rigorous, practitioner-ready framework for determining when interventional causal claims can be validly drawn from observational data. By integrating potential outcomes (PO), structural causal models (SCMs), directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), quasi-experimental and longitudinal designs, information-theoretic approaches, and modern machine-learning methods with decision-analytic principles, it identifies necessary conditions for each step of the causal inference process, from defining estimands and identifying causal effects to study design, measurement, estimation, interpretation, robustness, and external validity. The framework is operationalized through practical checklists, tables, diagnostic and falsification tests, and AI-assisted tools, making it accessible across fields such as epidemiology, environmental and occupational health, and regulatory risk analysis. Designed to meet the needs of professionals making high-stakes decisions based on nonexperimental data, the book addresses the lack of clear, testable criteria for credible causal inference. Real-world examples throughout the book illustrate diagnostics, falsification tests, and robustness checks, linking evidence directly to decision-making. Bridging multiple causal frameworks and modern machine-learning methods, it equips readers to assess when data support cause-and-effect conclusions, supporting more responsible, evidence-based policy and risk management.
The book offers health risk analysts, epidemiologists, and policy professionals a practical guide to valid causal inference from observational data. It is also ideal for graduate students and workshop participants in data science, decision analysis, risk analysis, and AI/ML applications.
Introduces a rigorous framework for valid causal inference from nonexperimental data Integrates PO and SCM models with decision analysis for empirically testable conclusions Contains checklists and AI tools across health, environment, and regulatory risk analysis
Autor*in
Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
Themen in »Valid Causal Inference from Observational Data«
Causal inference Observational data Interventional analysis Potential outcomes Structural causal models Decision analysis Estimand identification Study design Measurement validity Empirical validation External validity Falsification tests Robustness checks Transportability Risk analysis