Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence
A Guidebook for Scoping Scenario Options in Cyber and Beyond
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Beschreibung
This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning ‘(un)certainty’ to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today’s rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. ‘Red Teaming’. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, ‘Intelligence Engineering’ (IE) and, secondly, ‘Strategic Options Analysis’ (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.
The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.
This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning ‘(un)certainty’ to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today’s rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. ‘Red Teaming’. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, ‘Intelligence Engineering’ (IE) and, secondly, ‘Strategic Options Analysis’ (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.
The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.
Provides balanced, evidence-based insights on disruptive technologies Contains experimental and hands-on demonstrator mini-case studies Navigates the evolving landscape of Gen-AI with insights that lead in expectation management
Autor*in
Bruce Garvey
Themen in »Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence«
Uncertainty Decision making Foresight Intelligence analysis Risk mitigation Cyber Generative AI (Gen-AI) Strategic Options Analysis Assessment, Synthesis and Estimation
Stimmen zu »Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence«
“Navigating uncertainty using foresight intelligence is an essential read for leaders, policymakers, and analysts operating in cyber and emerging technology fields. Garvey and Svendsen provide not merely a methodology but a mindset--an invitation to embrace uncertainty as an opportunity for strategic innovation. In an age when the future is increasingly elusive, this book serves as both a guide and a call to action: to think beyond the immediate, to prepare for the unknown … .” (Wael Badawy, Computing Reviews, October 20, 2025)
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