Long-term Modeled Projections of the Energy Sector
An Incremental Approach to Narrowing Down the Uncertainty Range
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Beschreibung
This book covers available approaches to improving the performance and impact of long-term projections of the national energy sector development. In turn, it introduces an original multi-stage approach to narrowing down the uncertainty range of the input data and resulting projections. Its unique contribution is that it limits the scope for each of the projection timeframe segments step-by-step. This is done in the course of iterative calculations, which employ dedicated methods and other tools to elucidate and solve top-priority problems specific to each time segment. In closing, the book provides a detailed treatment of two essential research problems: 1) long-term forecasting for regional energy markets, and 2) the quantitative assessment of a) the barriers that are likely to hinder energy sector development and b) strategic-level energy security threats.
This book covers available approaches to improving the performance and impact of long-term projections of the national energy sector development. In turn, it introduces an original multi-stage approach to narrowing down the uncertainty range of the input data and resulting projections. Its unique contribution is that it limits the scope for each of the projection timeframe segments step-by-step. This is done in the course of iterative calculations, which employ dedicated methods and other tools to elucidate and solve top-priority problems specific to each time segment. In closing, the book provides a detailed treatment of two essential research problems: 1) long-term forecasting for regional energy markets, and 2) the quantitative assessment of a) the barriers that are likely to hinder energy sector development and b) strategic-level energy security threats.
Provides a theoretical ground for a novel approach that aims at solving the problem of improving the performance of long-term projections for the Energy Sector in an emerging world Shows in a visually engaging way the non-linear growth of uncertainty inherent in fuel and energy consumption projections published in the USA, OECD member countries, and Russia Discusses the evolution undergone over the last decades by long-term forecasting methods as applied to the Energy Sector development and price and demand dynamics
Autor*in
Yuri D. Kononov
Themen in »Long-term Modeled Projections of the Energy Sector«
Energy Economics Uncertainty Modeling Forecasting Strategic Threads