This groundbreaking book explains how the happiness levels of leaders, politicians and diplomats affect their assessments of the resolve of their state’s adversaries and allies. Its innovative methodology includes case studies of the origins of twelve wars with Anglo-American involvement from 1853 to 2003 and the psycholinguistic text mining of the British Hansard and the U.S. Congressional Record.
Peter S. Jenkins is Adjunct Professor at Osgoode Hall Law School of York University in Toronto, Canada, and recently taught in the Faculty of Law of Monash University in Prato, Italy. He is a member of the State Bar of California.
“Jenkins’ rare combination of psychological theorizing and archival research in several countries and time periods yields a fascinating new take on the central question of when states over-estimate or under-estimate others’ resolve. The biases that leaders and elites fall prey to appear to vary with their emotional states and senses of well-being, factors that most scholars have ignored.”—Robert Jervis, author of How Statesmen ThinkThis groundbreaking book explains how the happiness levels of leaders, politicians and diplomats affect their assessments of the resolve of their state’s adversaries and allies. Its innovative methodology includes case studies of the origins of twelve wars with Anglo-American involvement from 1853 to 2003 and the psycholinguistic text mining of the British Hansard and the U.S. Congressional Record.
Proposes that leaders, politicians and diplomats who have depressive temperaments will tend to underestimate the resolve of their state’s adversaries and overestimate the resolve of its allies, while the converse will occur when those individuals have non-depressive temperaments Argues that the emotional climate of a state’s national legislature changes significantly over the long term in response to exogenous factors, creating a greater risk of the outbreak of war being caused by the overestimation or underestimation of its adversary’s resolve Presents a groundbreaking analysis of empirical data, from psycholinguistic text mining and semantic analysis of debates, speeches, statements and memos to detailed case studies of the origins of twelve wars with Anglo-American involvement from 1853 to 2003
Peter S. Jenkins
assessment of resolve self-serving bias explanatory style psycholinguistic text-mining origin of wars British Hansard Congressional Record causal attributions happiness depression sadness depressive realism emotional climate cross-cultural research deterrence and spiral theory