Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era

Beschreibung

Since the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, policymakers have applied many strategies to return the economy back to "normal." However, seven years later, those tactics have resulted in different outcomes, and we're still in an economic slump. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era offers a data-driven way forward to take off the rose-colored glasses, see the financial landscape for what it is, and make strategic decisions based on those absolute conditions. Written by three thought leaders at Wells Fargo, this refreshing guide cuts through the political noise and takes a quantitative look at four characteristics currently differentiating the real economy from the idealized conditions used in stylized financial models. By applying a variety of statistical methods, using SAS as the primary tool, the authorial team discusses how these imperfections impact six aspects of the economy, including the labor market, so decision-makers can understand and effectively operate based on true economic factors. Forget about conventional wisdom and what you've heard from the mainstream media-get the insider's look at: * How this cycle in labor is far different from the perfect competition assumption central to many economic models * The fallout when economic shock sends price adjustments to a new equilibrium in a slow and indirect move * The variety of ways patterns from prior cycles have changed, especially surrounding growth, inflation, and interest rates As the dust settles from the onslaught of recovery efforts, the data clearly reveals what didn't work, and now business leaders and other decision-makers must adapt to operating under severe adjustments, imperfect information, lags in price movement, and policy uncertainty. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era is your dependable guide to seeing through the fog to correctly navigate the real landscape.
Reality-based modeling for today's unique economic recovery Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era presents a more realistic approach to modeling, using direct statistical applications to address the characteristics and trends central to current market behaviors. This book's unique focus on the reality of today's markets makes it an invaluable resource for students and practitioners seeking a comprehensive guide to more accurate forecasting. While most books treat the economy as if it were in a vacuum, building models around idealized or perception-biased behaviors, this book deals with the economy as it currently stands--in a state of recovery, limited by financial constraints, imperfect information, and lags and disparities in price movements. The authors identify how these characteristics impact various markets' behaviors, and quantify those behaviors using SAS as the primary statistical tool. Today's economy bears a number of unique attributes that usual modeling methods fail to consider. This book describes how to approach modeling based on real-world, observable data in order to make better-informed decisions in today's markets. * Discover the three economic characteristics with the greatest impact on various markets * Create economic models that mirror the current post-recession reality * Adopt statistical methods that identify and adapt to structural breaks and lags * Factor real-world imperfections into modeling for more accurate forecasting The past few years have shown a clear demarcation between policymakers' forecasts and actual outcomes. As the dust settles on the Great Recession, after-effects linger--and impact our current recovery in ways that diverge from past experience and theoretical expectations. Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era provides comprehensive guidance grounded in reality for today's economic decision-makers.

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John E. Silvia

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