Patterns in the Dark

Beschreibung

Patterns in the Dark is that rare book that offers an entirely new perspective on an issue of ongoing concern to investors: the unpredictability of financial markets. In this groundbreaking work, leading investment strategist and authority on chaos theory Edgar Peters makes accessible ways of understanding market behavior that--until now--were known only to specialists. In a lucid and engaging style, Peters explains how processes with a large number of independent agents, such as free markets, can spontaneously organize themselves into a coherent system. He draws on the work of the Austrian school of economics and complexity theory to show how free markets are by their nature continually evolving complex systems that require uncertainty to operate successfully. Using everyday examples, Peters shows how complex systems use uncertainty to adapt to changes in their environment and to absorb unexpected shocks. As proof, he cites instructive examples of how rash or heavy-handed attempts to eliminate uncertainty in markets have invariably led to disaster. Patterns in the Dark draws on a broad range of human knowledge and experience to clarify the behavior of a system that now operates on a global, 24-hour, and thoroughly interconnected basis. Peters illuminates the complex operation of the marketplace by including keen observations drawn from science, mathematics, and artistic creation as well as economics. His models include the social vision of the Austrian economists, Darwinian ideas of evolution, the laws of physics, and the creative risks of the artist. His meditations on financial markets weigh the effects of limitations vs. rules, risk vs. uncertainty, and order vs. chaos. As a guide to a world marketplace that has become increasingly complex anti uncertain, Patterns in the Dark offers the investor a rich source of insight, illumination, and wisdom.
Die Komplexitätstheorie lehrt uns, daß Prozesse mit einer großen Anzahl scheinbar unabhängiger Agenten, wie z.B. freie Märkte, sich spontan in einem kohärenten System organisieren können. Die Vorläufertitel 'Chaos' und 'Fractals' vom gleichen Autor behandelten jeweils nur einen Teil der Komplexitätstheorie. Erst kürzlich fand dieses Thema auf neue und innovative Weise in der Finanzwelt Anwendung. Dieses Buch erklärt die Komplexitätstheorie anhand von praktischen Beispielen aus der Finanzwelt und anderen Branchen. Hier erfahren Sie, inwiefern Komplexität und Zufall zum Teil auf die Finanzmärkte anwendbar sind und auch angewendet werden müssen. (10/99)

Autor*in

Edgar E. Peters

Themen in »Patterns in the Dark«

Finance & Investments Finanz- u. Anlagewesen Investments & Securities Kapitalanlagen u. Wertpapiere Wirtschaft / Allgemeines, Lexika

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Edgar E. Peters's latest book, Patterns in the Dark: Understanding Risk and Financial Crisis with Complexity Theory is not merely an autobiographical indulgence. The bulk of the book is Peters's lucent analysis expounding on the need for uncertainty. Whether he uses the example of genetic algorithms to show how randomness can lead a process to a goal even when the ultimate path is unknown, or if he simply shows how David Bowie's creation of Ziggie Stardust illustrates the integration of two seemingly contrary elements in the creative process (with a nod toward uncertainty as a requirement for stability), Peters's always seems to provide compelling insight into how global structure and local randomness interact. Edgar E. Peters's latest book, Patterns in the Dark: Understanding Risk and Financial Crisis with Complexity Theory is not merely an autobiographical indulgence. The bulk of the book is Peters's lucent analysis expounding on the need for uncertainty. Whether he uses the example of genetic algorithms to show how randomness can lead a process to a goal even when the ultimate path is unknown, or if he simply shows how David Bowie's creation of Ziggie Stardust illustrates the integration of two seemingly contrary elements in the creative process (with a nod toward uncertainty as a requirement for stability), Peters's always seems to provide compelling insight into how global structure and local randomness interact. Ultimately, the book's implications for "global structure" policymakers are more clear than any prescriptions that might be handed down to individual investors acting in an environment of local randomness. However, the discussions regarding various process models and their implications for economic activity are worth the price of admission alone. Interested investors ought to check it out.--("Fool On The Hill - An Investment Opinion" by Alex Schay - June 1999)
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