Making Decisions

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Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor ofStatistics, University College London This book looks at theproblems involved in decision-making and argues that there is onlyone logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basicprinciples--assigning probabilities to the uncertain events;assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing thatdecision that maximizes expected utility--decisions can be reachedmore efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that onlymaximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making.This extensively revised second edition uses only elementarymathematics and will be of interest to all those concerned withdecision-making and its consequences. Since his retirement fromUniversity College London in 1977 Professor Lindley has heldvisiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida, GeorgeWashington University, University of Sao Paulo, University ofWisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University ofCanterbury, New Zealand. Contents * Decisions and uncertain events * A numerical measure for uncertainty * The laws of probability * A numerical measure for consequences * The utility of money * Bayes' Theorem * Value of information * Decision trees * The assessment of probabilities and utilities * An appreciation Appendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index

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Dennis V. Lindley

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Betriebswirtschaft u. Operationsforschung Business & Management Management Science/Operational Research Wirtschaft u. Management

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