Uncertain Judgements
Eliciting Experts' Probabilities
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Beschreibung
Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge aboutsome unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating thatinformation as a probability distribution. Elicitation is importantin situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclearinstallations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, whereexpert knowledge is essentially the only source of goodinformation. It also plays a major role in other contexts byaugmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesianstatistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, andpractitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findingsin order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably.Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding thereader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods,illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.
This is achieved by:
* Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation ofexpert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical andpsychological research.
* Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range ofstandard distributions, appropriate to the most common types ofquantities.
* Providing a comprehensive review of the available literatureand pointing to the best practice methods and future researchneeds.
* Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics,psychology, engineering and health sciences.
* Including an extensive glossary of statistical andpsychological terms.
An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologistswith interests in expert judgement or practical applications ofBayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefitdecision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in themedical and social sciences.
Autor*in
Anthony O'Hagan
Themen in »Uncertain Judgements«
Bayesian Analysis Bayessches Verfahren Bayes-Verfahren Medical Science Medical Sciences Special Topics Medizin Methoden der Daten- u. Stichprobenerhebung Psychological Methods, Research & Statistics Psychologie Psychologische Methoden, Forschung u. Statistik Psychology Spezialthemen Medizin Statistics Statistik Survey Research Methods & Sampling
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"This book, written by a group of expert statisticians andpsychologists, provides an introduction to the subject and adetailed overview of the existing literature. The book guides thereader through the design of an elicitation method and detailsexamples from a cross section of literature in the statistics,psychology, engineering and health sciencesdisciplines." (Zentralblatt Math, 1 August2013)
"This is an interesting, well-written book that will be valuableto any decision maker who much rely on expert judgments, anystatistician who uses Bayesian statistics, and any researcher whowishes to understand the field of elicitation." (Journal of theAmerican Statistical Association, March 2009)
"This book provides an excellent introduction and workingreference to the subject of its title and should be an invaluableaid to producers and consumers of expert opinion."(Biometrics, September 2008)
"I recommend 'Uncertain Judgements' as an excellent source for awide variety of research." (Psychometrika, March 2008)
"...will be of interest to those who are concernedwith or interested primarily in the practicalities of modelingexpert judgement and opinion." (International Journal ofMarketing, January 2007)
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